Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
